Welcome to this week’s Food Exec Brief, your strategic intelligence roundup for food and beverage manufacturing leaders. This week, we’re covering:
- McCormick raised its FY2026 inflation forecast to as much as 7%, driven by freight and logistics costs tied to the Iran war, while the FAO food price index rose to its highest point since 2022 and 52% of producers cited input costs as their top concern.
- American confidence in grocery store food safety fell to a record 65% low, following the largest Cyclospora outbreak in U.S. history, and 73% of shoppers say they’ve avoided brands or foods after a recall.
- McCormick’s $44.8 billion Unilever acquisition cleared FTC review while Sargento acquired La Terra Fina, creating a new deli-focused business unit as food and beverage capital project counts reach their second-highest level of 2026.
Inflation forecasts are getting higher
McCormick lifted its FY2026 inflation forecast to as much as 7%, up from a prior mid-single-digit estimate. Freight and logistics costs are expected to compress margins through the quarter ending November 30. CFO Marcos Gabriel cited the Iran war tightening freight capacity and U.S. federal regulatory changes raising carrier costs. Bulk lead times increased from 24 to 72 hours to 7 to 10 days. McCormick’s adjusted operating income for Q3 still rose 22.1% to $358.5 million, and the company is counting on its Comprehensive Continuous Improvement program to offset pressure. Conagra is projecting full-year inflation approaching 6%. (Learn more)
The FAO Food Price Index reached 136 in September, up 1.5% from August and the highest since November 2022, with cereals up 5.1% in a single month. (Learn more) The ISM’s prices-paid index for manufacturing reached 77.9%, its 24th consecutive month of raw materials price growth, with 58.6% of companies reporting higher prices in September versus 46.2% in August. (Learn more)
The Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer found 52% of surveyed producers named higher input costs their top concern, a survey record, as the Farm Financial Performance Index fell 13 points. (Learn more)
Food safety trust is falling, and shoppers are avoiding certain brands
American confidence in grocery store food safety fell to 65% in 2026, a record low, and confidence in the federal government’s ability to ensure food safety fell to 47%, also a record low. The declines follow the largest recorded U.S. Cyclospora outbreak, which sickened more than 12,000 people across 21 states before being declared over in September. Both figures have dropped sharply over seven years: grocery confidence was 81% in 2019, government confidence was 68%. For the first time, a majority of Americans lack confidence in federal food safety oversight. (Learn more)
The behavioral shift may be harder to reverse than the trust numbers. Gallup found 73% of consumers avoided brands or foods because of a recall or advisory in the past year, up 20 percentage points from 53% in 2024. Separate data shows recalled units surged from 211.2 million in H1 2025 to 941.2 million in H1 2026, roughly a 346% increase, though total recall counts stayed roughly flat at around 1,635. Scale is the issue now. Brand avoidance at 73% means that even consumers who weren’t directly impacted by a recall are changing what they buy. (Learn more)
Two deals could change the flavor aisle
McCormick’s $44.8 billion acquisition of Unilever’s food business cleared FTC review on October 5, moving the deal past U.S. pre-merger scrutiny, with UK CMA Phase 1 clearance still due November 11. Unilever has offered to spin off Colman’s mustard to resolve concerns about combining it with McCormick’s French’s brand. Hellmann’s, Knorr, Frank’s RedHot, and Old Bay would sit in a combined portfolio with an enterprise value of about $65 billion. (Learn more)
Sargento acquired La Terra Fina, a maker of dairy-based dips, spreads, and quiches at undisclosed terms, and created a new Deli Business Unit to house it alongside its consumer and foodservice operations. The move extends Sargento into grocery and club deli departments. (Learn more)
September’s food and beverage manufacturing project tracking also logged 65 new projects, second-highest of the year, with seven valued at $100 million or more, including a $1.2 billion Chobani facility upgrade in Allentown, Pennsylvania, and a $700 million CHS soybean processing plant in Wisconsin. (Learn more)
