Welcome to this week’s Food Exec Brief, your strategic intelligence roundup for food and beverage manufacturing leaders. This week, we’re covering:
- Natural color demand could surge 400% to 500% ahead of major brands’ 2027 synthetic dye commitments, but the US produced just 12 million pounds of non-FD&C alternatives in 2025 against 21.4 million pounds of FD&C dyes certified.
- The Minneapolis Fed confirms tariff pass-through has arrived at 3.3% core PCE, while the US-Canada trade war left 70% of US farmers unable to afford needed fertilizer during spring planting.
- A GS1 US survey finds 67% of consumers now avoiding entire product categories after a recall, up 7 points year-over-year, as summer cyclosporiasis cases topped 17,000 and federal food safety staffing hit historic lows.
Natural color demand could surge 400% to 500% by 2027, and the supply chain is not ready to absorb It
$57.8 billion in US food sales used FD&C-colored products in 2025, representing 7.1% of total food and beverage. Brands including General Mills, Kraft Heinz, Nestlé USA, Conagra, Tyson, Hershey, and Kellanova have committed to removing synthetic dyes by the end of 2027. Walmart’s private label deadline is January 2027. General Mills has completed 90% of its US retail portfolio conversion already. (Learn more)
The supply numbers do not support the timeline. The US certified 21.4 million pounds of FD&C dyes in 2025 against 12 million pounds of non-FD&C alternatives. Natural color demand could surge 400% to 500%, but per-SKU reformulation runs $50,000 to $500,000 and full color-system development takes three to four years. Notably, China provides 76% of paprika’s capsanthin and India provides 86% of curcumin. RTI projects average price increases of 516% for non-FD&C colorants under accelerated demand, with curcumin alone facing a 1,600% increase. Oterra is developing a precision-fermented Red 40 alternative, but commercial availability is three years out, past most 2027 deadlines. (Learn more)
Why it matters: Commitments are signed, but acreage, extraction capacity, and contracts are not. And lead times mean the procurement window is already shorter than 2027 implies.
Tariff inflation has reached consumers, and the US-Canada trade dispute is adding upstream pressure for American farmers
Through the end of 2025, tariff rates had shown little relationship with goods inflation. As of July 2026, the Minneapolis Fed confirms that relationship turned “markedly positive.” Tariffs contributed 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points to core PCE inflation, now at 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since 2023. The New York Fed’s business survey shows firms plan additional tariff-related price increases ahead. Core inflation would remain roughly 1 percentage point above the Fed’s 2% target even without tariffs. (Learn more)
The US-Canada trade dispute is creating a fertilizer problem with consequences that will outlast any eventual settlement. The US imports more than 80% of its potassium from Saskatchewan and produces less than 1% of global potash supply. An April 2026 Farm Bureau survey found 70% of US farmers could not afford needed fertilizer during spring planting. Canadian retaliatory tariffs of 15% to 50% took effect September 8 on roughly $20 billion CAD of US agricultural goods. Soil nutrient depletion from reduced fertilizer applications does not resolve when tariffs lift; yield effects tend to carry forward. During the 2018 US-China dispute, American agricultural exports to China fell $7 to $10 billion annually as buyers shifted to Brazilian suppliers. (Learn more)
Why it matters: Retail-side inflation limits pass-through while fertilizer scarcity adds upstream ingredient cost risk, and the soil depletion from this spring’s under-application will outlast any tariff settlement.
Consumer trust in food safety dropped 5 points in one year, and federal regulatory capacity has thinned behind it
A September 2026 GS1 US survey found 94% of US adults concerned about the frequency of food recalls, up from 93% in 2025. In addition, 67% avoided entire product categories following a recall, up 7 points year-over-year, and 66% said they are hesitant to repurchase from the same brand, also up 7 points. Trust in the recall system itself is declining, as 80% of adults believe recalls protect public health, down from 85% a year ago. (Learn more)
The summer’s cyclosporiasis outbreak gave those consumer numbers a concrete frame. More than 17,000 confirmed cases since May, 922 hospitalizations, and 2 deaths, traced to iceberg lettuce from Taylor Farms distributed to Target, Taco Bell, Whole Foods, Kroger, Walmart, Costco, and Jack in the Box. The CDC workforce is down 28% since December 2024, and the FDA is down 23%. Parasite surveillance staff at CDC fell from 11 to 3 people. FSMA traceability rules enacted over a decade ago remain unenforced, and food safety experts noted they could have accelerated both the outbreak investigation and Taylor Farms’ initial recall response. (Learn more)
Why it matters: Category avoidance at 67% is a brand problem, and the 2028 FSMA traceability deadline gives manufacturers two years to show retail partners they’re ahead of it.
The Food Exec Brief provides weekly insights for food and beverage manufacturing leaders and publishes every Friday.
